Political ad spending -- looking forward to 2016?

I don't know if anything could have been done to stop the death of the dinosaurs. Lava flowing from the Kilauea volcano in Hawaii is going to make its way downhill to the sea, and man will not deter its course. There are some things in which we are powerless. Changes in media spending habits may be one more fine example, but I am betting, and hoping, that we still have a hand in our future. 

I live in the 24th Congressional District. Incumbent Democrat Dan Maffei is fighting off a strong challenge from Republican John Katko. This means nothing to you if you live outside the district, unless your home district is touched by the Syracuse TV market. Estimates of ad spending in this race have topped $5-million, and the great majority of those dollars have come from outside the district. Both parties have seen this race as a volatile swing zone so the outside money has flowed. And the winner is...local television. As we approach Election Day (tomorrow as I write) 30-second local spots have been almost entirely swept up by political messages, most of them by this Congressional battle. TV execs are whooping it up right now (and probably already sweating the "curse of media success": going up against these sales numbers next year). Still, TV's future seems bright, or brighter than most, except for you know what.

According to an article on emarketer.com (http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Total-US-Ad-Spending-See-Largest-Increase-Since-2004/1010982), 2014 will wind up seeing the biggest jump in ad dollars since 2004. TV is king at 38.1% of the mix while print grabs 17.7% of the ad dollars. Between now and 2018, it's estimated that TV will lose 6% of it's share while print will lose almost 21% of its claim. Every category is losing except digital. 28.2% of dollars are there right now, expecting to grow to a share of 37.3% by 2018, a 32% increase. The web is full of stories documenting the challenges newspapers/print media have had building digital services that provide revenue. As an industry, as a state association and as individual publishers, we have to overcome that or continue to lose. Why not make the 2016 elections our target to do so?

It all comes down to having an audience or readership, as always, but knowing who they are and how to segment them for successful targeting has become the key to new revenue. Our collective past attempts have relied on packaging digital with print, but that's because we desperately want our print products to survive. Like Tarzan, we have to let go of one vine before we can grab another if we want to keep moving forward. Otherwise we are just hanging there, gradually losing our grip. 

Continue to build audience with diverse print products, and tie them to exciting websites that build different demographic groups. Learn how to integrate video in your sites with interactive platforms that advertisers (or candidates) can take advantage of. The goal: have it up and running by this time next year and be ready to market it to the candidates. Let your associations (like FCPNY) bundle it for access to national and statewide political action groups. 

It's different, yes. The margins are different, too. Historically, that's too bad, but it is what is. Given a second chance, the dinosaurs would probably have settled for change with new possibilities for growth rather than extinction. But they didn't have a choice.